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The other Republican candidates will not be able to outgrow Bates on the ballot given her starting position and spending advantage. Soon the race will be effectively over as the donor community and activists continue to coalesce around Bates. Senator Pat Bates entered the race and united the donor community.Īssuming Bates engages in a robust, well-funded messaging campaign she is positioned to win this seat and protect the GOP firewall on the Board of Supervisors. The poll tested a battery of highly effective negative messages against Harkey that ultimately derails her campaign. Harkey is clearly vulnerable and in a precarious position. Harkey begins the race underwater and loses to Foley in a head to head ballot test. The initial ballot test shows Bates wins a three-way match against Harkey and Foley Bates comfortably overtakes Harkey.īallot Test – two way match – Bates beats Foleyīallot Test – two way match – Harkey loses to Foley PollingĪ survey among Orange County District 5 likely primary election voters conducted on behalf of the Bates campaign this month shows Bates leads in both name ID and in approval ratings. The scandals have already shut down Harkey’s ability to raise new money indicated by her weak fundraising position starting the race. The presence of a candidate marred by controversy will impact Republicans up and down the ballot in the pivotal 2022 midterms to win back the House. In their words: “Diane Harkey is a general election nightmare for Republicans.”
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First, in an attempt to prop up Harkey and face their preferred candidate, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee meddled in the primary to avoid a run- off against a stronger Republican candidate.
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This has already played out in the 2018 cycle when Democrats picked up a long-held GOP House seat through negative ad tracks that underscored Harkey’s scandals. Harkey’s ballot performance from three different polls demonstrates that she is in a remarkably weak position when confronted with these negatives and will lose to Katrina Foley in a head to head stack up. She is well liked and well respected which translates to high approval ratings and brand awareness.Ĭonversely, Bates’ Republican opponent, Diane Harkey, is carrying perceived negatives from public scandals. Looking at the race in context, Pat Bates is the only candidate with a clear path forward both in her ability to unite the donor community and the strength of messages in her favor. Louis metropolitan area and beyond with full capabilities in the electrical field. As a top-ranked electrical subcontractor, we proudly serve the St. is a market leader in electrical design, subcontracting, and service. The Lincoln Club took a methodical approach to evaluating the candidates and what it would take to win. Bates Electric Founded in 1992, Bates Electric, Inc. Now with her significant polling advantage, early fundraising momentum and track record of delivering on issues voters care about, Bates offers the best opportunity to hold onto this important seat and ensure Republicans maintain their 3-2 majority. The Lincoln Club has helped the Bates campaign raise over $200,000 in just over a week from her formal announcement.Īs the race for Orange County District 5 evolves, Pat Bates grows in strength.